As we head into the 16th race of the 2019 NASCAR season, the driver standing simply could not be any tighter. We have Joey Logano sitting on top, but he is currently just 9 points up on Kyle Busch, a deficit that could very easily be erased at the Sonoma Raceway this coming Sunday at the Toyota Save Mart 300.
While the top 2 drivers have opened up a bit of a lead on the chasing pack, it’s still all very tight, so we could well see a bit of a shift in those standings after the checkered flag is waved at the finish line on Sunday afternoon. Let’s now dig a little deeper into this race to see who might be the NASCAR Betting favorite and who might be the first past the finish line.
2019 Toyota Save Mart 300 Odds, Analysis & Prediction
As mentioned earlier, Busch is currently sitting second in the driver standings, sitting just 9 points off the pace being set by Logano.
He is one of only two active drivers in this race to have multiple wins at Sonoma, taking first in 2008 and 2015. Over his last 4 races at this track, he has never been worse than 7th, with a pair of top 5 finishes to go along with his win during that stretch. Busch has only been outside the top 10 once this season and has the most wins of any driver with 4.
Martin Truex Jr.
Outside of Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr. is the only other driver in this race who has one more than once at the Sonoma Raceway. He actually won this very event last year, with his previous win at Sonoma coming back in 2013. He has had a top 5 finish in among those wins, with his other results during that stretch being less than impressive.
It is that level of inconsistency at this track that makes him a bit of an outside pick in my mind, even though he is considered to be one of the favorites heading into the Toyota Save Mart 300.
If I am forced to pick an outright winner of this race, I believe that my money will be heading in the direction of Kevin Harvick. I always like drivers who have proven to be adept at tackling a particular track, which is certainly the case with Harvick at Sonoma Raceway.
He won here in 2017 and took second last year while finishing no worse than 6th in his last 4 starts at this track. The one thing that does concern me is that he has 0 wins this season, although he is still among the leaders in the driver standings with 10 top 10 finishes.
Logano will be looking for a strong performance that will help him stay at the top of the leaderboard in the driver standings, but he may well have his work cut out for him here.
Logano has forced his way to the top by winning 2 races and landing in the top 5 no less than 8 times in his 15 starts this season. The problem that he has here is that he has never won at this track and was nowhere near the lead in each of the last 2 years at this event. I think we are looking elsewhere for the winner here.
Last 10 Toyota Save Mart 300 Winners
- 2018: Martin Truex Jr.
- 2017: Kevin Harvick
- 2016: Tony Stewart
- 2015: Kyle Busch
- 2014: Carl Edwards
- 2013: Martin Truex Jr.
- 2012: Clint Bowyer
- 2011: Kurt Busch
- 2010: Jimmie Johnson
- 2009: Kasey Kahne