Padres vs Pirates MLB Odds, Preview & Expert Pick

The San Diego Padres are trying to stay at .500 or better before the All-Star break, and what they do on a five-game East Coast trip could decide whether that’s doable. The Friars open a series in Pittsburgh on Friday night against the Pirates as underdogs on the MLB odds.

How to Bet Padres at Pirates MLB Odds & TV Info

Why Bet on San Diego?

The Padres enter the series on a four-game winning streak to get back over .500 at 38-37. They surprisingly swept the visiting Brewers on Wednesday with an 8-7 victory. Franmil Reyes went 3-for-4 with a go-ahead three-run homer to lead the Padres to that win. With the Padres trailing 7-5 in the seventh inning, Reyes crushed a shot off of Jeremy Jeffress with two runners on, and that gave the Padres the lead and the slugger his 20th homer of the season.

Craig Stammen threw 1 1/3 scoreless innings on Wednesday to pick up a save against the Brewers. Kirby Yates wasn’t available. He has been fantastic this year with a big league leading 26 saves, a microscopic 1.13 ERA and 54/8 K/BB ratio across 32 innings of work this season. Yates has tied Heath Bell’s 26 saves in 2011 for the most of any Padre reliever before the All-Star break. Yates’ streak of recording a save while not allowing a run in each of his 26 save opportunities to begin the season is the longest in Padres’ history, besting Trevor Hoffman’s streak of 23 such games in 1996.

Friars lefty Eric Lauer (5-6) took the loss Saturday, coughing up five runs on 10 hits and two walks over 2.2 innings while striking out two as the Padres were downed 14-8 by the Rockies. While he managed to keep the ball in the yard, the Rockies pummeled Lauer for four doubles among the 10 hits in a typical Coors Field slugfest. The southpaw will carry a 4.60 ERA and 59:22 K:BB through 74.1 innings into Friday.

Save for his Coors Field struggles, Lauer has been excellent of late. In his last 10 starts, he’s held the opposition to two earned runs or fewer seven times. But he also had starts in Colorado where he coughed up five runs and eight runs during that stretch.

Team Stats

Offense

  • Runs: 4.39
  • Hits: 8.03
  • Walks: 2.83
  • Strike Outs: 9.73

Defense

  • Runs: 4.81
  • Hits: 8.57
  • Walks: 2.55
  • Strike Outs: 8.73

Why Bet on Pittsburgh?

The Pirates split two home games with the Tigers to open this week, winning 8-7 on Wednesday. Bryan Reynolds went 3-for-4 with a three-run home run and three runs scored in the victory. His dinger off Nick Ramirez completed the Pirates’ rally from a six-run deficit and vaulted them into a lead they would never relinquish. Reynolds also singled twice and he’s starting to get into the race for the NL Rookie of the Year award. His bat has enabled him to wrest a starting outfield gig away from Gregory Polanco and Melky Cabrera. Reynolds is batting .362/.418/.571 with six home runs and 26 RBI in 177 at-bats. He put up batting averages of .302 or better at every level of the minor leagues as well.

Felipe Vazquez turned in a clean ninth inning to earn a save against the Tigers on Wednesday. Vazquez has been one of the best closers in baseball this year, racking up 17 saves in 18 chances. He has a 2.05 ERA with 48 strikeouts and nine walks in 30 2/3 innings.

Padres vs Pirates is going to be a close one.

The Bucs’ Joe Musgrove (4-7) allowed six runs on nine hits with three strikeouts and two walks across four-plus innings while taking a loss against the Braves on Thursday. Through the first four innings, Musgrove worked around five hits to yield just one run, but the wheels came off in the fifth. Musgrove allowed a walk to start the frame and then four straight hits before the Pirates yanked him. Musgrove didn’t record an out in the fifth, and the runner he left stranded also scored.

Musgrove had a strong April, but since then, he owns a 7.59 ERA in his last nine starts. Overall, he is 4-7 with a 4.87 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 61 strikeouts in 77.2 innings. Musgrove is 2-0 with a 2.03 ERA (13.1ip/3er) in two career starts vs. San Diego. He won a 6-4 decision over Cal Quantrill on 5/19 at Petco Park; took a 5-0 lead into the seventh inning before allowing four runs. Musgrove also pitched 7.0 scoreless innings, struck out five batters and went 1-for-2 with a sac bunt at the plate while winning a 6-3 decision over Eric Lauer last year on 6/29 at Petco Park.

Team Stats

Offense

  • Runs: 4.48
  • Hits: 9.18
  • Walks: 2.66
  • Strike Outs: 8.16

Defense

  • Runs: 5.53
  • Hits: 9.21
  • Walks: 3.67
  • Strike Outs: 8.79

Padres vs Pirates MLB Betting Trends

  • Padres are 8-2 in Lauer’s last 10 starts during game 1 of a series.
  • Pirates are 0-5 in Musgrove’s last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
  • Padres are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games against Pittsburgh
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego’s last 6 games on the road
  • Pirates are 3-9 SU in their last 12 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 11 of Pittsburgh’s last 14 games at home

Expert Final Score Prediction for Padres vs Pirates

San Diego Padres 5 – Pittsburgh Pirates 4

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